Practical answers about cross-venue prediction market arbitrage. Numbers below are from the live universe of arbs we're tracking right now.
The same event listed at two different prices on two different venues. You sell on the expensive side and buy on the cheap side. Your profit is locked in the moment both legs fill — it doesn't matter who wins the election, game, or whatever the market is about.
Example: Polymarket says "Marco Rubio wins" is selling at $0.34, Kalshi says the same outcome is selling at $0.30. You sell on Polymarket (collect $0.34), buy on Kalshi (pay $0.30), pocket $0.04 per share locked.
Each Telegram alert gives you two clickable URLs and the exact prices to use. Click the first link, place the buy order on one venue. Click the second link, place the sell order on the other. Total time: about 60 seconds. Your profit is locked the moment both legs fill.
Median arb lifetime is 28.5 hours, measured from our own dedup state file. About 58% live longer than 24 hours, only ~5% close within 30 minutes.
You're not racing HFT bots. These are structural cross-venue mispricings that persist because Kalshi (US retail) and Polymarket (crypto-native) have different user bases and nobody is automatically bridging them.
Computed from today's live universe (190 arbs / $4,688 total inventory). Greedy-fill simulation by per-share edge, fees deducted (3.5% blended + $1/arb gas):
| Bankroll | Day 1 net | Year 1 net | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | $261.78 | $269.26 | 53.9% |
| $2,000 | $547.50 | $577.42 | 28.9% |
| $5,000 | $802.30 | $877.10 | 17.5% |
| $20,000 | $1,416.14 | $1,715.34 | 8.6% |
| $100,000 | $2,488.54 | $3,984.55 | 4.0% |
Smaller bankrolls earn higher %: more small-cap arbs than large-cap ones. Starter is $19/mo ($228/yr) or $190 billed yearly. With a 7-day free trial you can verify the alerts pay for themselves before paying anything — at most bankrolls the first week of trial covers the entire year's subscription.
Yes — just like any prediction market position. When you take an arb, capital stays in your venue accounts until that market resolves.
Short-term events (LA Mayor June 2026, Fed Chair confirmation) resolve in months. Long-term (2028 elections) can lock capital for 1-2 years. Weighted-average lockup across the current universe is about 12 months. Think of it as a CD that pays 4-54% depending on bankroll, not a savings account you can pull from anytime.
Kalshi charges ~7% of net winnings. Polymarket charges effectively zero (the 2% taker fee is currently waived). Polygon gas is ~$0.50 per transaction.
The dashboard and table above already factor in a 3.5% blended fee + $1 per arb gas, so what you see is what you net after fees.
For cross-venue arbs, yes — you need funded accounts on both Polymarket and Kalshi to execute the two legs.
For NegRisk arbs (same-event multi-outcome trades inside Polymarket), you only need a Polymarket wallet.
Kalshi requires US residency + completed KYC. Polymarket is blocked in some jurisdictions including Ontario and parts of Europe. Verify access at both venues before subscribing.
Polymarket and Kalshi for cross-venue mispricings, plus Polymarket NegRisk events for same-event multi-outcome arbs. More venues are planned but not promised.
The scanner runs every 30 minutes. New arbs surface within one cycle. Dedup logic ensures the same arb only re-alerts on a 5-cent or larger edge improvement (or after 24 hours), so you don't get spammed by the same trade.
No. We detect and deliver. You make all trading decisions, fund your own venue accounts, and place your own orders. We give you the signal; you decide what to do with it.
Three real ones:
1. Capital lockup. You can't pull money out before each market resolves. Anywhere from a few weeks to 2+ years per arb.
2. Execution slippage. Orderbooks tick. By the time you click through to place your order, the price may have moved 1-3 cents from what the alert showed. We display orderbook depth so you can size accordingly, but small slippage is normal.
3. Thin-inventory days exist. Some days surface 10+ new arbs, others surface 1 or 2. We can't manufacture inventory we don't see.
Speed bots chase micro-arbs on the same venue. Tiny edges that close in milliseconds, requiring colocated servers and custom infrastructure.
Converge finds cross-venue structural mispricings where the same outcome is priced differently on Polymarket vs Kalshi. These edges are 50-1500 bps (0.5-15%) and persist for hours to days because they're driven by different user bases and venue plumbing friction, not latency. You're not racing bots — you're seeing what most retail traders never look for.
Yes. Cancel through Stripe at any time. No contracts, no commitments, no questions.