What our track record means
Published · Updated
Our public track record says 72% of our last 1,170 good and strong picks still had value when the game started, across 424 games, for a return of +1.9% at $1 on every pick. Here's what that number means, how it's checked, and what it doesn't promise.
What a pick is
The board flags a bet when a sportsbook's price pays more than our estimate of what the bet is worth. We grade each one by how much more it pays: the good and strong picks are the ones the record counts. Every one is saved the moment it's flagged, with its book and price, so nothing can be picked out afterwards.
How it's checked
When the game starts, we look at the market again. If the price you could have taken still pays more than the game's estimate at kickoff, the pick had value. The market has the most information it will ever have at game time, so a price that still looks good then was a good price, whatever the final score.
Why not just count wins?
A single bet's result is mostly luck. A +150 bet that was a fair price wins 40% of the time, so a run of losses says almost nothing about whether the prices were good. Checking every price against the game-time market measures the thing we control: whether the bet was worth taking. Over enough bets, good prices are what turn into a return.
What it doesn't promise
Any single bet can lose, and past results don't promise future ones. Books also limit accounts that keep taking their best prices, which caps how much anyone can bet this way; our guide on limits covers what to expect.
Related
Converge isn't affiliated with, endorsed by or paid by any sportsbook named here. Names identify the books measured; each is a trademark of its owner.